Will the Real Corbin Carroll Please Stand Up?

After a massive 2023 breakout, Carroll's slow start in 2024 conjured up a wave of skepticism and polarization.

Corbin Carroll got off to a slow start in 2024, raising concerns about the validity of his breakout from a year before. After many people drafted him as high as the top three, he frightened fantasy managers with a .212/.301/.334. first half slash line. His power seemed to have evaporated. The second half was a different story. He had 11 homers in August, as his power rebounded. He hit 17 homers in the after the All Star Break, after just five before it.

Looking at his breakout 2023, it was a consistent season from start to finish. He left jaws on the floor with his uber-elite speed, and hit with an impossible amount of pop for his 5-10, 165 pound frame. In his first full Major League season, Carroll opened the year hitting .311 in April, and finished with another .311 month in September. He never hit lower than .250 in any calender month from that season. He did it four times in 2024.

All the quality of contact metrics indicated Carroll’s production dip was deserved. He wasn’t hitting the ball with authority or working good at bats. His bat was soft and weak in the first half.

It appeared he was ready to turn things around on July 29th. Carroll capped off an epic 6-0 Diamondbacks comeback with a walk off two-run homer off Nationals’ closer Kyle Finnegan.

It was Carroll’s first career walk-off home run. At this point in his slump, the D-Backs color commentator even said “Corbin Carroll, of all guys,” highlighting the improbability of the moment. He turned a corner and found it again. From July 30 to the end of the season (55 games) Carroll slashed .263/.355/.556, good for a .912 OPS. He hit 14 homers, six doubles, six triples, and ran wild on the bases, swiping 15 bags. During this span he kept his strikeout rate at 20%. This is more like the Corbin Carroll we know.

During that stretch, his quality of contact improved as well, indicated by a 44% hard hit rate. His season HH% was only 40%.

So, after a top ten overall fantasy finish in 2023, and an inconsistent showing in 2024, it may be difficult to plan for Carroll in drafts. The key is finding a reasonable projection that ignores the noise. Let’s compare some important indicators:

2023: 25 HR, 8.8% BB, 19.4% K, .344 xWOBA, 54 SB

2024: 22 HR, 10.7% BB, 19.0% K, .329 xWOBA, 35 SB

The biggest difference as far as results is the BABIP. He enjoyed a .325 BABIP in his breakout 2023, but it fell all the way to .256 in 2024. That’s why you see his batting average drop from .285 to .231 along with it. With a massive change in BABIP over just one year, it’s worth looking under the hood to see if it was mostly arbitrary results, or if Corbin’s quality of contact declined and the slash dipped accordingly. Here are his Statcast measures at the plate from 2023:

And then the 2024 Statcast measures:

It seems there was only marginal differences in the quality of contact, while his plate skills actually improved. He shaved about 3% off his chase rate, showing an improving knowledge of the strike zone. This led to an awesome 2% walk rate increase. His power can come back, and in a more sustainable way, if he continues to improve his plate discipline and zone knowledge. That will also lead to more walks, beneficial to his stolen base volume.

Carroll has a superstar’s toolbox. His ADP didn’t change much. Carroll had an average NFBC ADP of 5 in 2024. This time around, he’s being picked at #10 on average. If Corbin Carroll is available by the time your late first round pick is in the clock, you’d better make that happen.

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