Did the Reds upgrade with Gavin Lux?

Out with the old, in with the new. But who's who?

The Reds continued their busy off-season by trading for Gavin Lux, acquiring the second baseman after Jonathan India was traded to the Royals along with OF Joey Wiemer for Kansas City starter Brady Singer.

India won Rookie of the Year honors and was at the front of the Reds’ young core in the early 2020s. He was drafted in the 26th round of the 2015 MLB draft.

Gavin Lux’s career carried a bit more early pedigree. Lux was a first round pick of the Dodgers in 2016, the 20th overall pick. He got his feet on the ground early in their minor league system, being one of the youngest players to play a full season in the Midwest League in 2017. By the next season he was in Double A as a 20 year old. He earned mid-season and postseason All-Star honors in the California League because of his promising, balanced play.

In 2019, Baseball America named Lux Minor League Baseball Player of the Year, putting him into some good company.

It is indicative of the career Lux has had since he made it to the majors that the two players that won the award after him have accomplished more in their careers than Lux has. He’s had some bad luck.

Lux tore his ACL in a Spring Training game in 2023, ending his season before it started. By the time of the injury, Lux was positioning himself into an every day role with the Dodgers, not an easy thing to do with their never-ending influx of talent. He had just posted a .276/.346/.399 slash line and a 109 OPS+ over 129 games. His numbers were down in 2024 as he returned from injury, but he still logged a 101 OPS+.

Lux is a two time World Series champion. His first came in 2020, during the pandemic shortened season. India was at the Reds’ alternative training site during this time, out of competitive baseball like many minor leaguers during that year. By 2021, he had taken the starting shortstop job away from aging veteran Dee Strange-Gordon with a big Spring Training performance, and wasn’t about to waste this oppurtunity.

India was 2-4 with a double in his major league debut on April 2021, and never looked back en route to Rookie of the Year Honors. During his breakout rookie season, India slashed .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs. That was good for a 116 OPS+. He seemed to have star written all over him, and not just because of the 100th percentile lettuce.

India’s hair was some of the best we’ve seen in a long time, and gave him swag out there. In 2021, it was a common sight to watch him casually jog the bases, hair flowing in the breeze.

He has yet to fully recapture the magic of his 2021 season, but has maintained a solid toolbox as a big leaguer.

Let’s compare Lux to India.

Lux having a better WAR in 111 less games is impressive. It’s likely due to India’s bad defensive performances in 2021, 2022, and 2023. India will seemingly have more pop than Lux, as indicated by the SLG. His approach incorporates more pull side aggressiveness than Lux, an all fields spray hitter. They are pretty dang similar other than that.

India is not exactly known for his defense. -31 fielding runs over four seasons is not starter level play.

India looks like a much worse fielder when you measure career numbers, but players change, and India changed a lot on the defensive side of things from 2023 to 2024. India truthers get a hold of this chart.

So now, at least by Fielding Run Value, India is better than Lux in the field. That’s the chaos of fielding metrics. They are as volatile year to year as any stat on the web.

Not that India was setting any records with his glove out there in 2024, but he was better than Lux by a run value of four. Lux was 16th out of the 20 second basemen with a -3 Fielding Run Value.

India stopped messing around on defense in 2024, posting the best defensive season of his career out of nowhere.

It wasn’t a Gold Glove level season or anything, but It’s encouraging that he seems to be improving weakpoints of his game. This was the first season where India’s defense didn’t hurt his team overall.

Defensive improvement is pivotal to the revitalization of his career. His offensive production started to dip, and his defense was going with it. He nearly became lost in the gaggle of Reds’ prospects, and eventually the infield overflowed until India popped out and found himself in Kansas City.

I believe Lux and India are better off with their new teams. It’s hard to develop in a lineup like the Dodgers, so loaded at the front and middle of the order. In Lux’s case, Cincinatti is likely a better home for regular at bats than Los Angeles was. He also had a huge second half in 2024, hinting at the potential for another gear at the dish. After the All Star Break, Lux went on to hit .304/.390/.508 with 23 extra base hits in 210 plate appearances. His OPS jumped from .562 in the first half to .898 in the second half.

On the other hand, India will have a chance at a refreshing change of scenery in Kansas City as well. He maintained a solid foundation at the plate by limiting chases outside the zone at an elite level (98th percentile chase % in ‘24). He can continue to work on his defense alongside his new double play partner and perennial MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. The days of him playing shortstop are over. That is a good thing.

I am certainly intruiged by India’s career progression. I think he’s more one dimensional than people think. He could be a suprise comeback type of player this year. Lux will be just fine as well.

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Referenced:

BaseballSavant.com

BR Bullpen

Wiki